Saturday, October 13, 2012

Out in the tails of the Bell Curve

Dear reader, you are surely aquainted with the Standard Normal distribution (otherwise known as the "Bell Curve").  It is useful in many statistical applications, including some of the social sciences.


When applied to things like the political landscape (where for instance the political left and political right can be represented by the part of the x-axis on either side of the center, that 50% mark at the peak of the curve), it explains why there are so few true "undecided voters" (the further from the middle, the less likely you are to switch sides), and why the "undecideds" decide so many elections (they are the closest to the middle and have the least distance to move).  But it also explains why they are so very difficult to motivate and keep engaged in the political process.

The 2/3 or so in the middle (shown in red as +/- one standard deviation) are the agreeable uninvolved who simply go along, whether blissfully or grumbling as they go; they may have an opinion, but either way they are able to live with whatever the majority decides.

The next quarter (in green, split roughly 13% on either side) are the disagreeable activists, those who "do not go gentle into that good night", but rant and rave and try actively to change things (usually falling short, since this is a social "system", a process, after all, and lone individuals can rarely change a larger social process).

The remaining 5% (the 2+% percent of people on each end of the curve), are the true outliers, the fringe, the pathological disrupters, creative geniuses, anarchists, crusaders, megalomaniacs & visionaries who actually DO change the world - for good or for ill.

Change the definition of the x-axis, and the same principle applies.  Make one half of the bell curve stand for the degree of collectivism / statism, and the other side the degree of libertarianism / individualism, that a person desires; the same descriptions hold true.  The Ayn Rands have their followers out there in the "tail" on one end, and the Mao & Lenin types have theirs in the other "tail".  Most are in the middle wishing the government wasn't so intrusive in their lives, but also wanting the government to fix more of their problems, etc.  The 2/3 in the middle mostly just go along, the 5% in the tails are the lightning rods, fanatics and magnets that draw the discontented (in the green) away from the middle and toward their wild ideas.

Which are you closer to... the agreeable middle?  Or the fringe?

No comments:

Who links to my website?